#EarningsRealityCheck

În această dimineață, SpaceX a publicat primul său raport financiar de la publicarea publică. Indicatorii financiari de bază au fost semnificativ mai buni decât așteptările pieței, iar reducerea pierderilor în afacerea sa de AI a fost mai puternică decât se anticipa, însă cheltuielile de capital legate de AI au depășit așteptările. După publicarea rezultatelor financiare, prețul acțiunilor SpaceX a scăzut după orele de program. Pe 6 august, SpaceX va vedea, de asemenea, până la 911,5 milioane de acțiuni deblocate, reprezentând 20% din totalul acțiunilor deblocate. Cu "câștiguri mixte" și "deblocare de trilioane de yuani în ciclul de deblocare a trilioanelor de yuani", ce părere aveți despre prețul acțiunilor SpaceX pe viitor? #财报观察员: Rezultate mixte, deblocarea se apropie! Ce părere aveți despre viitorul SpaceX?

Hook: SpaceX just beat Wall Street's expectations—so why did investors hit the sell button? Because in today's market, making money isn't enough anymore. Investors are asking a different question: "How much cash are you burning to keep the dream alive?" SpaceX's latest earnings actually looked impressive: ✅ Revenue reached $7.81 billion, beating expectations by 13%. ✅ Loss per share came in at $0.09, much better than the expected $0.26 loss. ✅ Starlink's operating margin climbed to 38.6%, proving the business can generate real profits. But beneath those headline numbers, investors found something more worrying: ⚠️ Capital spending surged to $18.37 billion, more than 40% above expectations. ⚠️ Free cash flow for the first half of the year was negative $25 billion. ⚠️ The AI segment generated $2.56 billion in revenue while consuming $15.83 billion in investment. In other words, SpaceX isn't just growing fast—it's spending even faster. And there's another problem: on August 6, 911.5 million shares will become eligible for sale, equal to 141% of the current public float. Not all of those shares will hit the market, but even a small wave of selling could create serious short-term pressure. That's the dilemma investors are facing right now: • The business is improving, but cash flow remains weak. • Revenue is beating expectations, but spending is growing even faster. • The earnings surprise hasn't been fully absorbed, and the unlock event is already around the corner. The market used to buy anything labeled "AI," "high growth," or "Musk." Now, investors are pulling out their calculators. Because stories can keep investors excited for years—but selling pressure arrives overnight. #DailyOrbit

This earnings season is sending a clear message: beating estimates is no longer enough. SpaceX reported its first quarterly results as a public company, with Q2 revenue up 92% YoY to $7.81B and its operating loss narrowing from $970M a year earlier to $143M. Starlink subscribers doubled to 12M, helping connectivity revenue rise 66%. But AI infrastructure capex reached $15.8B, up from $749M a year ago. SpaceX said NVIDIA hardware will power Starmind AI1, while Musk said its broader AI infrastructure would be built exclusively on NVIDIA chips. The stock gave back gains after hours. Next comes a supply test: 911.5M shares, about 12% of shares outstanding and more than the current public float, become eligible for sale on Aug 6. AMD told a similar story. Q2 revenue reached $11.54B, up 50% YoY, while adjusted EPS came in at $1.66. Data Center revenue jumped 107% to $6.7B, or 58% of sales, and Q3 revenue guidance of about $13B topped consensus. Shares still fell more than 8% after hours as investors questioned whether the growth rate and roughly 56% non-GAAP gross margin could justify the valuation as Helios begins to ramp. Three themes are driving the reaction: · Growth quality: Is AI demand converting into durable profits? · Capital intensity: How much spending is required to sustain that growth? · Expectations: How much good news was already priced in? SpaceX's NVIDIA decision also highlights the competitive backdrop facing AMD. It does not weaken AMD's reported Data Center growth, but it shows how fiercely major AI infrastructure contracts are contested. The earnings bar has moved. The question is no longer whether companies can beat estimates, but whether their results can outrun expectations. For crypto users, tokenized equities are bringing these earnings-driven moves closer to on-chain markets. What matters most in this phase of the AI cycle: faster growth, stronger margins, or clearer returns on capex? #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops

Here's another perspective: from a fundamental standpoint, $SPCX is very difficult to rally in the short term, so previous bets on the stock price increase mainly relied on short squeeze and capital arrangements. Looking at the stock price performance, the possibility of continuing the short squeeze during tonight's only window after the market opens is also very low; otherwise, the stock price should be maintained above 130 now. Therefore, the capital arrangement regarding the Tesla–SpaceX merger is the only path. Judging from the recent series of denials about withdrawing from China and other information, the merger is not currently a priority. Confirming the merger when SPCX is stuck at 110 is equivalent to using currency at a 60% discount to buy Tesla—the share swap ratio would be locked at the most humiliating position for SPCX shareholders and the greatest dilution for himself. It's not that he doesn't want to merge; he just can't merge at this exchange rate. So SPCX must be pushed higher first before the merger can be initiated. And all this will likely have to wait until after the Q3 earnings report when the stock price pulls back to 150–170. Are bulls very pessimistic now? Actually, not really. Although the stock price performance yesterday and today hasn't been enough to make unlocked shares reluctant to sell, if the price is low enough, diehards won't sell. The 150–170 range, which is neither too high nor too low, is exactly when the willingness to sell is strongest; prices that are too high or too low will suppress selling pressure. Moreover, judging by Musk's recent actions, he probably still has some tricks up his sleeve, such as signed cloud service or defense orders generating verifiable revenue, Musk or the company increasing holdings with real money, or buybacks. So operationally, holding long-term is fine, and short-term selling on highs to do swing trades is also okay. It ultimately depends on individual position size and leverage level. $SPCX

Currently, $SPCX is testing the 110 resistance level If it breaks below this resistance, tomorrow will be even harder Tomorrow's initial share circulation will directly double the deflation Falling from 130 to 110 means a direct drop of 20 per share Many people are trapped at high levels, expecting a pullback, but it didn't happen This trend will continue, and it will be difficult to return to 135 in the short term There will be multiple share unlocks in August, with a larger unlock on the 6th You can take profits at 105; if it continues to fall, wait for a small pullback to go long 🏆 Current Market Leaders 🟠 $BTC • 🔵 $ETH • 🟡 $BNB • 🟣 $SOL • 🔗 $LINK • 🏦 $AAVE • 🌐 $ONDO • 📈 $HYPE 👀 Projects to Watch If market participation continues to broaden, projects such as $SUI, $TAO, $WLD, $PENDLE, $ENA, $SEI, $KAITO, and $HUMA could attract increased attention. #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops #EarningsRealityCheck

🚨 The Next Big $SPCX Opportunity May Come After the Lock-Up, Not Before Most investors are focused on the stock's sharp decline. The more important question is what happens after the first major lock-up expires on August 6, when a large number of previously restricted shares become eligible for sale. Lock-up expirations often create short-term selling pressure as early investors gain liquidity. While that can weigh on price, it can also create opportunities if the company's long-term fundamentals remain intact. A historical example is $PLTR : • IPO at $10 • Rallied to $39 • Sold off after the lock-up expiration as insiders took profits • Bottomed near $6 before institutional accumulation • Eventually rallied to new highs Could $SPCX follow a similar path? It's far too early to know—but the upcoming lock-up will be an important event to watch. Current milestones: • IPO: June 12 • Early high: $225 • Recent price: Around $111 • First major lock-up: August 6 For me, the key question is whether the $110–115 area can hold once any lock-up-related selling pressure is absorbed. If buyers successfully defend that zone and fundamentals remain strong, it could lay the groundwork for a stronger recovery over time. The focus isn't on chasing headlines—it's on waiting for price action and market structure to confirm the opportunity. This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always do your own research. #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops

**$xSPCX/USDT Price Prediction & Technical Analysis** The **$xSPCX/USDT** (SpaceX Tokenized Stock) daily chart shows price consolidation following a major spike. The token is currently trading at **$XSPCX 115.49**, slightly down by **-0.52%** today, while holding a **+1.95%** gain over the past 7 days. Here is a simple look at what the technical setup is showing: * **Volatility & Recent Spike:** After hitting a bottom floor of **$104.90** around August 1, buyers launched a sudden surge up to a high of **$130.75**. However, strong selling pressure rejected the higher prices, pulling xSPCX back toward the current level. * **Moving Average Convergence:** Price action is currently hovering right around its key moving averages: **MA5 ($112.77)**, **MA10 ($112.68)**, and **MA20 ($116.14)**. Crossing and holding above the MA20 line ($116.14) will be necessary to confirm a bullish trend. * **Key Support & Resistance:** * **Support:** Immediate support sits around **$112.50 – $112.70** (MA5/MA10), with strong lower support at **$108.00** and **$104.90**. * **Resistance:** The immediate target for buyers is breaking past **$120.00**, followed by the spike high at **$130.75**. ### **Price Outlook & Scenario Predictions** * **Bullish Scenario (Upward Trend):** If buyers can defend the **$112.50** level and push past **$116.15** (MA20), xSPCX could gain momentum for another run toward **$124.00 – $130.00**. * **Bearish Scenario (Pullback):** If the price drops back below $112.50, look for a retest of the **$108.00** level or consolidation near the **$105.00** support base. Do you think xSPCX will break above $120.00 this week, or will it fall back to test $108.00 support?$XSPCX

SpaceX ($SPCX) CEO Elon Musk believes the market is significantly undervaluing Starlink's long-term potential. During the company's first earnings call since going public, he described Starlink as one of SpaceX's most important growth drivers. Musk said Starlink has the potential to become a major pillar of global internet infrastructure, with the possibility of handling most of the world's internet traffic in regions where the service is available over the next decade. SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell added that the upcoming Starlink Mobile network could deliver speeds and performance up to 100 times better than the current system. These improvements will be powered by newly acquired EchoStar spectrum and next-generation V3 satellites, which are expected to offer around 10 times more communications capacity. The company also expects rapid growth in AI, humanoid robots, and autonomous vehicles to drive a sharp increase in global bandwidth demand, further strengthening Starlink's position as a critical internet platform. Financially, SpaceX posted an impressive second quarter, reporting $7.81 billion in revenue—up 92% year over year and well above the $6.93 billion analysts expected. The company also reported a smaller-than-expected loss of $0.09 per share, outperforming forecasts of a $0.24 loss. Looking ahead, management expects to achieve a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2026 and now targets $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030—one year earlier than previously projected—with a chance of reaching that milestone as soon as 2029. #EarningsRealityCheck #SP500Hits7700 #SpaceXBeatEstimates

BREAKING: A total of 911,500,000 shares of SpaceX, $SPCX, held by employees and early investors, become eligible to trade tomorrow. That's ~43% more than the 638,900,000 shares issued at IPO. SpaceX's free float is set to increase from 4.9% to 11.8% of outstanding shares.#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops

⚡ SPACEX SET TO UNLOCK 912 MILLION SHARES, DOUBLING CURRENT FLOAT AMID SHARP STOCK PLUNGE □□ Massive Share Unlock Event: SpaceX is officially unlocking approximately 912 million shares on August 6, 2026, roughly double the current circulating market float, which will drive the circulating share ratio from under 5% to approximately 12%. Severe Valuation Pressures: Trading around $112.67, SPCX shares tumbled 10.10% intraday and extended losses to 12% at the opening bell, wiping out over 205 billion USD in market capitalization. Comparison to IPO Price: This steep pullback leaves the stock trading roughly 16.5% below its initial IPO issuance price of 135 USD. The impending massive supply release coupled with aggressive selling pressure poses a major test for liquidity and investor sentiment surrounding the aerospace giant. 🚀📉 $SPCX $QQQ $TSLA #SpaceXBeatEstimates

SpaceX Crushes Expectations — A Powerful Signal for AI, Semiconductors, and Global Risk Assets SpaceX delivered one of the biggest earnings surprises of the season, posting second-quarter 2026 results that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations. Revenue nearly doubled from a year ago, while its loss per share came in far better than analysts had projected. Adjusted EBITDA also surpassed forecasts, reinforcing that the company's business is scaling faster than expected. Starlink remained the primary growth engine, driven by a rapidly expanding subscriber base, stronger enterprise demand, and increasing government contracts. The results further highlight SpaceX's transformation into a global technology infrastructure company with increasingly resilient cash flows. Meanwhile, AI-related operations continued to accelerate as demand for compute infrastructure and data centers surged. The company is investing aggressively in AI, committing tens of billions of dollars in capital expenditures. Although these investments pressured the stock after hours, they reflect confidence in long-term growth rather than short-term profits. The report reinforces the view that the AI supercycle remains intact, supporting semiconductor and memory leaders such as $SNDK, $SKHYNIX, and $NVDA, which are positioned to benefit from continued AI infrastructure spending. For crypto, stronger-than-expected results from a major technology company can improve overall risk sentiment. If capital continues flowing into AI and technology, digital assets could also attract renewed investor interest. SpaceX's latest earnings confirm that growth remains the defining market theme of 2026. Despite heavy AI investment, the company's strengthening fundamentals suggest the long-term technology cycle still has substantial room to expand. #SpaceXBeatEstimates #SP500Hits7700 #CLARITYVoteMath $SNDK $SKHYNIX