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Awais Ahmad 1231919
I am Cige. AMD's earnings exceeded expectations, but the stock fell 8% after hours. An old script is playing out again: good performance does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise.
AMD's earnings figures
Revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $1.66, both higher than market expectations. Data center business revenue was $6.7 billion, up 107% year-over-year, accounting for 58% of the company's total revenue, with a gross margin maintained at 56%. The Q3 revenue guidance is about $13 billion, higher than the market average expectation but below some institutions' higher forecasts. After the earnings release, the stock fell more than 8% after hours.
Why did it fall despite exceeding expectations?
Market expectations had been pulled up too high in advance, and the guidance did not further surpass them, so the market was already pricing in higher expectations. When the "exceeding expectations" margin is not large enough, it is interpreted as "not good enough." AMD's problem is that high growth has already been priced in.
Impact on SanDisk
AMD's 8% drop after hours directly pressures SanDisk's earnings tonight. The storage sector has seen huge recent gains; SanDisk rose from 998 to 1468, with expectations fully priced in. AMD's movement is a signal: if the earnings just meet expectations rather than greatly exceed them, profit-taking will be very intense.
How to handle the 1331.77 short position
Set the stop loss above 1550. Do not heavily bet on direction before earnings. The options market implies post-earnings volatility of about 15% to 21%. If the directional judgment is wrong, the stop loss is the bottom line. Take profits in two batches: if after earnings the price falls back to the 1400 to 1420 range, close half; if it falls below 1350, exit completely. If after earnings there is a volume breakout above 1550, it means the short structure is broken, exit unconditionally. Earnings are the biggest variable; do not heavily bet on direction before earnings.
Cige has finished speaking. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK
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