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The post presents a recognizable investing narrative, but several claims should be treated as opinion rather than established market fact. What the post gets right IPO lock-up expirations can increase the number of shares available for trading, which may lead to higher volatility. It's common for newly listed stocks to experience sharp declines after the initial excitement fades. Strong earnings don't always lead to higher stock prices if investors are disappointed by guidance, margins, or heavy spending plans. Where caution is warranted There is no universal "post-IPO chart pattern." While many IPOs decline before recovering, many others never regain their highs, and some rally almost immediately. A 900 million share unlock increases potential supply, but it does not mean all those shares will be sold. Many insiders continue holding their positions. Saying "the real move happens 200–300 days later" is a historical observation for some stocks, not a reliable prediction for any individual company. How to interpret the setup For SPCX, the key questions after the lock-up are: 1. Does the stock absorb the additional share supply without breaking key support? 2. Is trading volume unusually high, suggesting institutional buying or selling? 3. Does management's AI infrastructure spending translate into stronger revenue and cash flow over the coming quarters? 4. Does the market view the investment as value-creating rather than margin-dilutive? Bottom line The sensible takeaway is the one the author mentions near the end: wait for the market's reaction instead of assuming the lock-up expiration will be either bullish or bearish. Price action, trading volume, and follow-through in the days after the unlock will provide stronger evidence than any historical template alone. In short, a lock-up expiration is an important event, but it is not, by itself, a reliable signal that a bottom—or a new downtrend—is inevitable.