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SpaceX passed its first unlock test, but not yet its valuation test. Shares rose 6.1% to $114.92 on Aug 6 even as up to 911.5M shares became eligible for sale, more than the roughly 638.9M shares sold in its IPO. The rebound followed a nearly 14% drop the previous day, while the stock remains below its $135 offering price. Its first post-IPO earnings report delivered a clear top-line beat: · Revenue reached $7.8B, up more than 90% YoY · Net loss narrowed to $541M, or $0.09 per share, less than half analysts expected · AI revenue reached $2.56B, up 247% YoY SpaceX now reports AI as a core segment following its February acquisition of xAI, bringing xAI, Grok and X into the broader business. But Starlink remains the current revenue engine. The connectivity segment generated $4.29B, up 66% YoY and accounting for more than half of total revenue, while Starlink subscribers doubled to around 12M. The spending side changed the conversation. Total quarterly capex climbed to about $18.3B, with roughly $15.8B directed toward AI infrastructure, more than double the previous quarter and significantly above current quarterly AI revenue. That comparison does not capture the multi-year value of infrastructure, but it shows the scale of the upfront buildout. Investors are increasingly separating rapid AI demand from the cost of delivering it. The unlock also requires context. Shares becoming eligible for sale does not mean all of them were sold on Aug 6. The rebound shows the market absorbed the first day of potential supply, not that selling pressure has disappeared. Aug 6 was only the first staged release. Additional tranches remain under the IPO lockup schedule, while Elon Musk’s shares are subject to a 366-day lockup. The next test is whether Starlink’s revenue base and rapid AI growth can support higher capex before more shares become available. Which signal matters more now: AI revenue converting into stronger margins, or continued absorption of the unlocked supply? #SpaceXUnlockRebound #AIMemoryBullTest